Comments on MOMENT OF CLARITY: They Lie

Dr. Tim, Had to catch up on your blog, out of touc...

2012-01-13T09:55:58.739-06:00

Dr. Tim,
Had to catch up on your blog, out of touch for a week with family issues. Thank you for more clarity. I will share it for sure!!

Thank you Dr. Tim... this is an answer to a questi...

2012-01-07T18:38:29.607-06:00

Thank you Dr. Tim... this is an answer to a question I was thinking about at the Town Hall meeting in Waukesha today (Saturday). I saw the data you mentioned in the BizTimes during the last two months.

I checked the unemployment data by state (after the meeting) and found unemployment in Wisconsin to be below the national average by one point.

Thank you for exposing the truth.

UPDATE: I received a reply from my initial reques...

2012-01-05T17:14:16.543-06:00

UPDATE: I received a reply from my initial request to BLS for an explanation of the contradictory data. Some very nice person referred my question to another very nice person who will check into it.

Dr. Tim First, I am a new reader to your blog, but...

2012-01-04T20:24:58.072-06:00

Dr. Tim
First, I am a new reader to your blog, but find your views enlightening and you have me hooked!
Second, you asked:"I could find no combination of numbers that can be tortured into a computation of a 24,300 job loss in October/November." If you look at the WI DWD website (http://dwd.wisconsin.gov/dwd/news.htm)for monthly announcements, you can get the monthly numbers for both place of residence and place of work. They announce based on place of work, the numbers you used were for place of residence. So, they announced Oct loss of 9,700 and Nov loss of 14,600. That is where they get 24,300 jobs lost. However, the 9700 loss has been revised to a loss of 2400 based on October final numbers, but somehow they still use the -9,700 for October. Hmmm....no agenda there. Also, even though they have monthly adjustments between preliminary numbers and final numbers, the largest swing for 2011 was 3,000 until October when there was a change of 7300 additional jobs than first reported. Hmmm...still no agenda there, especially when you consider how a loss of 9,700 jobs sounds so much worse than a loss of 2,400 jobs during a month when the recall signing effort was starting. Yeah, right, no agenda there. I will wait and see what the final numbers for November are before believing the loss of 14,600 as final. My bet, those will be revised down. Still a somewhat bad trend that there are more losses than gains from July through October, but with all the turmoil in the state, I can understand businesses holding back hiring until they see some stability, IMHO. Still, you point out a very good bias from the BLS. And yes, any adjustments that make the numbers better are not reported by local dead tree papers (no bias there either! lol). Thanks Dr. Tim for your great insights.

Another excellent post, only this one's going ...

2012-01-04T14:23:32.071-06:00

Another excellent post, only this one's going to be forwarded to my Wisconsin contacts.

I fear Governor Walker is not doing enough to counter the propaganda being spread by the unions and state media outlets.

Awesome work Dr. Tim, I will send this to others ...

2012-01-04T13:06:12.961-06:00

Awesome work Dr. Tim,

I will send this to others that live in the Peoples Republic of Madison... It is criminal that any information be taken and skewed to benefit a political agenda on EITHER side of the isle...

Dear readers/commenters/others... Please forwar...

2012-01-03T22:01:49.724-06:00

Dear readers/commenters/others...

Please forward this article to the parties that you think should read them. Dr. Tim has done the grunt-work, it's up to us to disseminate it to the folks that can get it out to the public. These are fun to read, but if we don't do anything with the information, we are not doing our part.

I was happy to hear Vicki McKenna discussing this article and mentioning Tim Nerenz this morning. Now, lets get it to the rest of the media.

Dr Tim, Governor Walker, Senator Johnson, and the...

2012-01-03T19:03:11.747-06:00

Dr Tim, Governor Walker, Senator Johnson, and the GOP delegation in the House need to see your report. If this is true, that's a national scandal.

Dr Tim, Governor Walker, Senator Johnson, and the...

2012-01-03T19:02:48.737-06:00

Dr Tim, Governor Walker, Senator Johnson, and the GOP delegation in the House need to see your report. If this is true, that's a national scandal.

oops, I was extrapolating the total civilian workf...

2012-01-03T16:58:19.164-06:00

oops, I was extrapolating the total civilian workforce using the number and percent of unemployed persons. Decimal issues caused my numbers to inflate higher than your. I didn't see they had the total workforce size already listed...

Could it be the "Seasonal Adjustment" fa...

2012-01-03T16:52:00.876-06:00

Could it be the "Seasonal Adjustment" factor? One (BLS) might be able to spin things by reporting net job changes NOT seasonally adjusted vs. seasonally adjusted. The data you link to is seasonally adjusted. Also, for some reason I'm getting different (more positive) figures than you, arriving at a net gain of 21,577 jobs from Sept to November when I do the math...

You've outdone yourself. Thank you for the exc...

2012-01-03T16:42:17.939-06:00

You've outdone yourself. Thank you for the excellent work you put into your blog.

@Tom, that is certainly possible, but would requir...

2012-01-03T11:17:21.201-06:00

@Tom, that is certainly possible, but would require all of the surrounding states to show the opposite contradictions as Wisconsins. My point was to show the contradiction and to warn against accepting government pronouncements without question. I suspect both October and November numbers will be revised - buried on the back pages someday.

One question here - I like your conclusion but wan...

2012-01-03T10:42:32.185-06:00

One question here - I like your conclusion but want to voice my inner devil's advocate to see if there's something missing.

1) Since the BLS numbers there are based on the residence of the person, won't those numbers not match up with the number of jobs actually located inside Wisconsin? If people in Racine, Hudson, Beloit, etc. work across the border, that gets counted in the BLS numbers you link to, but wouldn't get counted in the BLS report of the growth/loss of jobs in Wisconsin, right?

Do you think Bill O'Reilly would be worthy of ...

2012-01-03T07:58:34.385-06:00

Do you think Bill O'Reilly would be worthy of reporting your findings? This information needs to get out to as many people as possible. He claims to be an Independent, whatever that means nowadays.
Good information. thanks.

"It doesn’t take a lot of imagination to gues...

2012-01-02T17:42:53.814-06:00

"It doesn’t take a lot of imagination to guess at possible reasons why Obama appointees at the Department of Unions might want to propagandize against the nation’s top union buster, Governor Walker. Or perhaps it was just a simple error - two months in a row. Yeah…yeah, that’s the ticket."